Species-specific climate Suitable Conditions Index and dengue transmission in Guangdong, China

Parasites & Vectors

Table 3 Incidence rate ratio and 95% confidence interval for potential predictors of autochthonous dengue case in Guangdong, 2014

Variable	Model I^a	Model II^b	Model III^c	Model IV^d
Variable	IRR (95% CI)	IRR (95% CI)	IRR (95% CI)	IRR (95% CI)
SCI-Ae. aegypti	1.03 (1.02, 1.05)	1.04 (1.02, 1.06)	–	1.06 (1.03, 1.09)
SCI-Ae. albopictus	0.99 (0.97, 1.01)	0.97 (0.95, 0.99)	–	–
Difference in SCI-Ae. aegypti and SCI-Ae. albopictus	1.05 (1.04, 1.07)	–	1.04 (1.02, 1.06)	–
NDVI	0.95 (0.94, 0.97)	0.98 (0.96, 0.99)	0.98 (0.96, 0.99)	0.97 (0.96, 0.99)
Imported case	1.59 (1.31, 1.93)	1.28 (1.02, 1.61)	1.28 (1.02, 1.60)	1.28 (1.01, 1.61)
SCI-Ae. aegypti × SCI-Ae. albopictus^e	–	–	–	0.99 (0.99, 0.99)^f
BIC		1165.30	1162.67	1165.91

BIC Bayesian information criterion, CI confidence interval, IRR incidence rate ratio
^aUnivariable models
^bMultivariable models with predictors being SCI-Ae aegypti, NDVI, Imported case
^cMultivariable models with predictors being Difference in SCI-Ae. aegypti and SCI-Ae. albopictus, NDVI, Imported case
^dMultivariable model III with interaction term SCI-Ae. aegypti × SCI-Ae. albopictus
^eInteraction between the SCI for Ae. albopictus and the SCI for Ae. aegypti
^f0.9998 (0.9996, 0.9999), P = 0.001

ISSN: 1756-3305